Two-thirds of North America is at risk of energy shortfalls this summer during periods of extreme demand, according to the latest summer reliability report from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation.
The 2023 Summer Reliability Report found that while there are no high-risk areas and resources are adequate for normal summer peak demand, the number of areas identified as being at elevated risk has increased.
If summer temperatures spike, seven areas — the Western United States, the Southwest Power Pool and the Midcontinent Independent System Operator, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the SERC Reliability Corporation Central area, and New England and Ontario — may face supply shortages during higher demand levels, the report found.
In the Midcontinent Independent System Operator region the risk of being unable to meet reserve requirements at peak demand this summer is lower than in 2022 due to additional firm import commitments and lower peak demand forecast, however, wind generator performance during periods of high demand will be a key factor in determining whether there will be sufficient electricity supply on the system to maintain reliability, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation report said.
Reserve margins have fallen in the Southwest Power Pool as a result of increasing peak demand and declining anticipated resources, the report said. And, like the Midcontinent Independent System Operator, the energy output of Southwest Power Pool’s wind generators during periods of high demand will be a key factor in determining whether there is sufficient electricity supply on the system, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation report said.
Compared with last summer, the reserve margin outlook has also fallen in the SERC Reliability Corporation central area. Forecasted peak demand has risen by over 950 megawatts while growth in anticipated resources has been flat, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation report said. The region is expected to have sufficient supply for normal peak demand, but demand-side management or other mitigations can be expected for above-normal demand or high generator-outage conditions, the report said.
Resources are expected to be sufficient to support normal peak demand in the Western Interconnection of the United States, however, wide-area heat events could expose the Northwest, Southwest and California-Mexico areas of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council to the risk of energy supply shortfalls because each area relies on regional transfers to meet peak demand in the late afternoon to evening hours when output from the area’s solar resources diminish, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation report said.
Entities in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council are planning to install over 2 gigawatts of battery energy storage, which could help reduce energy risks from resource variability, but wildfires could limit electricity transfers and result in localized load shedding, the report said.
In New England, resources are projected to be lower than in 2022 but to still be sufficient for meeting operating reserve requirements at normal peak demand though the region may have to obtain emergency resources or non-firm supplies from neighboring areas during more extreme demand or low resource conditions.
In Ontario, a planned nuclear outage for refurbishment has reduced the electricity supply in the province. In addition, load growth is contributing to a constrained transmission network during high-demand conditions that may not be able to deliver sufficient supply to the Windsor-Essex area in the southwest of the province. The province could, therefore, see a “significant increase” in reliance on imports this summer under both normal peak and extreme demand scenarios, the report said.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas region is experiencing strong growth in both resources and forecasted demand, having added over 4 gigawatts of new solar nameplate capacity since 2022, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation report said. In addition, load reductions from dispatchable demand response programs have grown by over 18 percent to total 3,380 megawatts.
Peak demand in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas region has risen by 6 percent as a result of economic growth, nonetheless, resources are adequate to meet average summer peaks, but dispatchable generation may not be sufficient to meet reserves during an extreme heatwave that is accompanied by low winds, the report said.
Generation owners and grid operators will also face new challenges this summer because of the Environmental Protection Agency’s Good Neighbor Plan, finalized on March 15, that requires that downwind states meet Clean Air Act requirements to reduce pollution that contributes to ground level ozone. The rules will restrict power plant emissions and limit the operation of coal-fired generators in 23 states, including Nevada, Utah, and several states in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Atlantic, and Midwest, the report said.
Supply chain and other issues could also affect reliability this summer, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation said. In particular, difficulties obtaining sufficient labor, material, and equipment as a result of broad economic factors has affected preseason maintenance of transmission and generation facilities in North America, causing some owners and operators to delay or cancel scheduled maintenance activities, such as in the Southeast and the Western Interconnection areas.
And while winter precipitation is expected to improve the water supply for hydroelectric generation in parts of the West, low water levels on major reservoirs remain a concern for electricity generation in the West. In particular, Washington’s Grand Coulee Dam and the Hoover Dam on the Arizona-Nevada border remain at historic low levels, which could potentially limit hydroelectric energy output.
In addition, many parts of North America now experience elevated temperatures that extend beyond the summer months into periods when equipment owners and operators historically scheduled outages for maintenance, the report said, noting that there could be resource constrains during shoulder months as unseasonable temperatures coincide with generator unavailability.
In the report, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation recommended that grid operators and generation owners review their seasonal operating plans and for communicating and resolving potential supply shortfalls.
Stakeholders should also employ conservative generation and transmission outage coordination procedures commensurate with long-range weather forecasts and engage state or provincial regulators and policymakers to prepare for efficient implementation of demand side management mechanisms, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation said.
In addition, generation owners with solar photovoltaic resources should implement recommendations in the inverter-based resource performance issues alert that the North American Electric Reliability Corporation issued in March, the organization said.
