A new report from the International Energy Agency projects that electricity demand from data centers worldwide is set to more than double by 2030 to around 945 terawatt-hours.
AI will be the most significant driver of this increase, with electricity demand from AI-optimized data centers projected to more than quadruple by 2030, the new report said.
The IEA’s special report Energy and AI draws on new datasets and extensive consultation with policy makers, the tech sector, the energy industry and international experts.
The report was released on April 10.
United States
In the United States, power consumption by data centers is on course to account for almost half of the growth in electricity demand between now and 2030.
Driven by AI use, the US economy is set to consume more electricity in 2030 for processing data than for manufacturing all energy-intensive goods combined, including aluminum, steel, cement and chemicals.
In advanced economies more broadly, data centers are projected to drive more than 20% of the growth in electricity demand between now and 2030, putting the power sector in those economies back on a growth footing after years of stagnating or declining demand in many of them, IEA said.
“A diverse range of energy sources will be tapped to meet data centers’ rising electricity needs, according to the report – though renewables and natural gas are set to take the lead due to their cost-competitiveness and availability in key markets.”
The report emphasizes the significant uncertainties that remain, from the macroeconomic outlook to how quickly AI will be adopted.
It also notes questions over how capable and productive AI will become, how fast efficiency improvements will occur, and whether bottlenecks in the energy sector can be resolved.
AI could intensify some energy security strains while helping to address others, according to the report.
Cyberattacks on energy utilities have tripled in the past four years and become more sophisticated because of AI, IEA said.
“At the same time, AI is becoming a critical tool for energy companies to defend against such attacks. Another energy security concern relates to the expanding demand for critical minerals used in the equipment in the data centers that power AI.”
The report provides first-of-its-kind estimates of demand from data centers for critical minerals, whose global supply is today highly concentrated.
While the increase in electricity demand for data centers is set to drive up emissions, this increase will be small in the context of the overall energy sector and could potentially be offset by emissions reductions enabled by AI if adoption of the technology is widespread, according to the report.
Additionally, as AI becomes increasingly integral to scientific discovery, the report finds that it could accelerate innovation in energy technologies such as batteries and solar PV.
According to the report, countries that want to benefit from the potential of AI need to quickly accelerate new investments in electricity generation and grids, improve the efficiency and flexibility of data centers, and strengthen the dialogue between policy makers, the tech sector and the energy industry.
The report is part of the IEA’s expanding work analyzing the deepening ties between energy and AI.
It builds on the Global Conference on Energy and AI the IEA hosted in December 2024 – the largest conference on this topic to date – and the Agency’s contributions to the AI Action Summit chaired by France and India in February.
The IEA will also soon launch a new Observatory on Energy, AI and Data Centers, “which will gather the most comprehensive and recent data worldwide on AI’s electricity needs, in addition to tracking cutting-edge AI applications across the energy sector.”
