U.S. energy consumption decreases in the next several years before increasing again in the early 2040s through 2050, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s recently published Annual Energy Outlook 2025 (AEO2025).
U.S. energy consumption in 2050 is lower than in 2024 in most of the scenarios it explores in AEO2025, but the range of outcomes varies significantly based on the underlying assumptions, EIA said.
“For AEO2025, we made significant updates to the model that underpins the results, adding a hydrogen market module; a carbon capture, allocation, transportation, and sequestration module; and an enhanced upstream oil and natural gas resources module. We also enhanced many existing modules to better reflect market dynamics and emerging technologies.”
EIA said its policy assumptions are central to understanding its AEO2025 projections. “In most of the cases we modeled, we only considered laws and regulations implemented as of December 2024. Legislation, regulations, executive actions, and court rulings after that date are not included.
In addition to its usual Reference case and eight side cases, “we have included two alternative policy cases this year to examine the effects of electricity and transportation sector policies implemented since our last AEO.”
