The Northeast Power Coordinating Council on Jan. 3 announced the completion of its Northeast gas/electric system study and provided details on key findings from the study.
Initiated in 2023, the study evaluated New York and New England gas supply and pipeline constraints for extreme and protracted winter events during the peak heating season, from December through February, for three time periods: 2024/25 (short-term), 2027/28 (mid-term) and 2032/33 (long-term).
A Steering Committee, consisting of NPCC, the New York Independent System Operator, ISO New England, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, and the Northeast Gas Association supported the evaluation.
The study quantified the physical capability of the consolidated network of pipeline and natural gas storage infrastructure to serve gas-fired generation under cold weather conditions; assessed the resilience of the natural gas infrastructure to withstand postulated gas and electric contingencies while continuing to serve high priority gas distribution company loads and scheduled gas-fired generation under cold and milder weather conditions; assessed mitigation measures when contingencies occur; and, identified key uncertainty variables and risk factors affecting gas/electric interdependencies.
“The study shows that the region’s natural gas infrastructure is fully utilized during the modeled extreme cold weather period,” said Charles Dickerson, President and Chief Executive Officer of NPCC.
“However, as with any system, there are constraints and inter-dependencies between the gas and electric systems,” he said.
“Should any of the modeled gas-side contingencies occur during a cold snap, or if extreme cold weather conditions last longer than the three-day periods modeled in this study, it will likely add significant stress to the consolidated network of gas pipeline and storage infrastructure in New England and New York. Sustained extreme cold temperatures will likely heighten electric reliability challenges in the northeast if oil inventory cannot be replenished on a timely basis,” he added.
Key findings include, among other things:
- Hydraulic modeling confirms that the New York and New England natural gas infrastructure is fully utilized during the modeled extreme cold weather period. However, as with any system, there are constraints. Should any of the modeled gas-side contingencies occur, the constraints on the system would be exacerbated, thereby increasing reliance on oil-fired generation to ensure electric grid reliability;
- Most gas-fired generators operating in New York and New England do not hold firm transportation entitlements. The absence of firm entitlements can expose those generators to gas supply curtailment or interruption when pipeline congestion materializes during the peak heating season. Maintaining dual fuel capability, coupled with liquid fuel storage and resupply arrangements, is a viable way to satisfy fuel assurance objectives for electric system reliability during the modeled hydraulic periods;
- Events resulting in the near or total cessation of natural gas throughput, for example, a pipeline line break or the loss of a strategically located compressor station, while having a low probability of occurrence, may potentially cause catastrophic impacts for downstream customers;
- Extreme cold weather conditions lasting longer than the three-day periods modeled in this study could add additional stress to the network of gas pipeline and storage and oil storage infrastructure in New York and New England, thereby heightening electric reliability challenges if oil inventory cannot be replenished on a timely basis;
- The constrained baseline operating conditions on the gas systems in New England and New York during cold weather periods mean that limited gas-fired generation options are expected to be available to respond to electric contingencies, which could take the form of a sudden nuclear plant or HVDC transmission outage.
A summary of the study’s findings is available at: https://www.npcc.org/resources.
The full report will be posted by January 21, 2025 at: https://www.npcc.org/resources.
NPCC is one of six Regional Entities located throughout the United States, Canada, and portions of Mexico. NPCC’s geographic area includes the state of New York, the six New England states, Ontario, Québec, and the Canadian Maritime Provinces of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. Overall, NPCC covers an area of nearly 1.2 million square miles, populated by more than 56 million people.
