The Pacific Northwest Utilities Conference Committee released its 2023 Northwest Regional Forecast on May 4, which projects a 20 percent increase in load over the next five years. This equates to roughly 4,000 average megawatts.
“The 2023 forecast reflects accelerated and steeper regional load growth compared to previous years. Much of this load growth is attributed to more certainty in prospective new industrial loads over the next five years,” the report said.
“The forecast is significant in light of recent extreme weather conditions that have already resulted in higher demand, emphasizing the importance of having enough capacity to meet rising energy needs,” the PNUCC said.
“Utilities in the region are increasing the pace of their plans for new renewable resources and energy storage, and identifying new transmission needs in their preferred resource portfolios,” said PNUCC Executive Director Crystal Ball in a statement. “As demand and resources grow, working together to increase regional coordination and develop innovative solutions will be crucial to maintaining a reliable interconnected grid.”
PNUCC’s updated 10-year forecast serves as an annual barometer for the region’s electric power system and provides a snapshot of electricity demand and the existing and proposed generation resources Northwest utilities are planning.
Ball said that the 2023 forecast doesn’t include emerging technologies, such as advanced nuclear, offshore wind, renewable hydrogen, and long-duration storage, that are considered part of the future grid.
“However, utilities anticipate technological advancements will be required to further diversify the mix of clean generation, and utilities are expected to update their plans as they gain more information about future loads, resources and transmission opportunities,” the PNUCC said.
For the first time, the forecast projects the region needs higher amounts of summer capacity resources to meet summer peak hour demand compared to the winter capacity needs. Winter peak hour demand remains higher than summer. In addition to summer and winter peak needs, the forecast monitors annual energy needs.
This year’s forecast shows more growth in the annual energy deficit as well. Watching changes in these trends provides the region with greater situational awareness and identifies areas where more coordination can help, the PNUCC said.
Utilities are predicting greater energy efficiency savings compared to last year’s forecast, recognizing energy efficiency as a key resource in the region. The ten-year savings projected in the 2023 forecast are slightly higher as utilities seek more savings to meet growing capacity and energy needs during the clean energy transition.
“Utilities also continue to deploy and find new ways to rely on customers to reduce energy use at peak times, such as incentivizing shifting energy usage to different times of day,” the PNUCC said.
Two elements that will impact future load are electrification and climate change, both of which are expected to unfold and affect loads differently across the region. The potential impact of electric vehicle and heating system adoptions is slight in this year’s forecast but is expected to increase over the next several years.
Utilities have a strategic focus on the need for upgraded and new transmission infrastructure to ensure a reliable and resilient grid that can accommodate the forecasted changes, the PNUCC said.
“Planning and construction of new transmission infrastructure is underway and more enhancements to the transmission system will be needed as it is a critical component to integrating new resources and delivering generation to load centers,” it said.
The PNUCC is a not-for-profit trade association of consumer-owned and investor-owned utilities and other power industry partners.
